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beyond the veil

Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part Two: Abnormal Distributions

2019-04-08 moth 2
This post continues our series on developing statistical models to explore the arcane relationship between UFO sightings and population. The simple linear model developed in the previous post is far from satisfying. It makes many unsupportable assumptions about the data and the form of the residual errors from the model. Most obviously, it relies on an underlying Gaussian (or _normal_) distribution for its understanding of the data. For our count data, some basic features of the Guassian are inappropriate.

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beyond the veil

Bayes vs. the Invaders! Part One: The 37th Parallel

2019-04-03 moth 6
From our earlier studies of UFO sightings, a recurring question has been the extent to which the frequency of sightings of inexplicable otherworldly phenomena depends on the population of an area. Intuitively: where there are more people to catch a glimpse of the unknown, there will be more reports of alien visitors. Is this hypothesis, however, true? Do UFO sightings closely follow population or are there other, less comforting, factors at work?

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cryptozoology

Missing Links: Density of Bigfoot Sightings in North America

2018-10-14 moth 0
Sightings of Homo sapiens cognatus, or Homo sylvestris, are well-recorded, with a particular prevalence in North America. Bigfoot, otherwise known as the Sasquatch, is one of the most widely-reported cryptids in the world; it is the subject of documentaries, film, music, and countless books. The Bigfoot Field Research […]
cryptozoology

Mapping Paranormal Manifestations in the British Isles

2018-04-10 moth 14
In our last entry we analysed the relative frequency of paranormal manifestations in the British Isles according to the Paranormal Database. The results of that analysis showed that hauntings of various forms are by far the most commonly-reported paranormal encounter in the British Isles, followed by cryptozoological sightings. […]
cryptozoology

Paranormal Manifestations in the British Isles

2018-03-17 moth 1
The British Isles are ancient, haunted places. Pre-Roman legends and folk songs are filled with dragons, magic, and strange, wild creatures. Spirits, fairies, and all kinds of imps and goblins roam the countryside with intent ranging from the mischievous to the malevolent. Will-o’-the-wisps lead unwary travellers deep into […]
maps

Are UFOs more commonly seen near US military bases?

2018-02-27 moth 0
What do they know? Since the Roswell Incident in 1947, UFO’s have been associated with secretive military installations where mysterious craft dart across the night sky. Skeptics might hold that many UFO sightings, far from being extraterrestrial visitors, are better explained as experimental or conventional military craft. Does […]
interactive

Unveiling the Global UFO Inquirer

2018-02-22 moth 0
Our previous post showed an interactive map of UFO sightings drawn from the NUFORC dataset. Whilst this did allow us to see UFO sightings over time, it remained a relatively crude tool that created a static visualisation for each year. In delving deeper into the NUFORC data, it […]
interactive

Interactive Map of UFO Sightings by Year

2018-02-18 moth 1
Whilst an overview of a century of UFO sightings reveals a broad overall feature of the data, it is far more useful to be able to see how sightings change over time. The interactive plot below shows all sightings for a given year. We can clearly see that […]
maps

Global Distribution of UFO Sightings 1910-2013

2018-02-16 moth 0
Where are you most likely to see a UFO? More importantly, where are they most likely to see you? Thankfully, the National UFO Reporting Centre (NUFORC) have diligently compiled and curated a dataset of over a century of global UFO sightings. The data has been processed, cleaned, and […]